« If we
don't have a sense of where we want to go, we're probably not going to get
there. I think one of the things that's lacking in the global environmental
movement is a vision. We spend so much time being against things, it's not
always clear what we're for. »
Lester Brown 2006
Outline for Noe21’s press
conference :
Climate change: the issue
is in the solutions
Towards an 80% reduction in global
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
For the practical details on the press
conference, see the attached document.
Contents
1.
Overview
2.
Description of wedges :
2.1
energy efficiency and change of behaviours
2.2
technical solutions
2.3 unsustainable or poorly known wedges
3.
Implementing the wedges
1. Overview
Achieving an 80% reduction in greenhouse
gas emissions by 2050 represents a daunting global task. This is why the model
developed by professors Robert Socolow and Stephen Pacala from Princeton
University are so useful. What their research (published in Science) provides
us with is a roadmap for emissions reductions that are broken down into several
sectoral changes. Each such solution is symbolised by a « wedge ».
Each wedge is then placed below the
International Energy Agency's (IEA) prospect for 2050, so as to reach the 80%
reduction by 2050 (see box 1).
The IEA's (International Energy Agency)
business as usual approach announces an increase in global emissions from 6
GtC/y (current level) to 14 GtC/y by 2050. This scenario is unsustainable,
making CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere reach a level threatening life on
earth as we know it. Such an increase in CO2 concentrations would induce an
increase of 4 to 5 degrees Celsius in global temperatures by the end of the
century. That figure is well above the plus 2°C agreed as a maximum threshold
by the EU and the IPCC to avoid a worse case scenario of climate change to
unfurl.
According to Jean-Marc Jancovici (french
climate expert), setting a maximum of 2°C rise in global temperatures
translates into a compulsory reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 80% by
2050. This amount of reduction is what is estimated necessary to stabilize
global CO2 emissions at 3 GtC/y.
Using the wedges of Socolow frame of mind,
wedges should thus be numerous and sufficiently promising to reduce current
projections of 14 GtC/y in 2050 to a 3 GtC/y scenario. 3 GtC/y is the amount of
CO2 that oceans and forests absorb each year.
The strength of the wedge approach is that
each one of them is technically possible to implement by 2050.
2. Description of wedges:
Each wedge represents a strategy capable
of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The aim being to reduce 11GtC/y of CO2
emissions in 50 years, each wedge is attributed a number of GtC/y, as estimated
by researches listed at the end of this document.
2.1 Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency (3 GtC/y)
Avoiding the consumption of one energy
unit is much cheaper than adding the same quantity of new energy to the grid.
Regarding our current over-consumption of
energy, most notably in Northern America but also in the rest of the developed
countries, there is a vast potential in energy efficiency gains without
reducing comfort levels. I.e.: Thermal insulation of residential and commercial
buildings, improved efficiency for modern appliances and lighting, vehicles,
but also industries and utilities. The combined effect of these efficiency
gains could halve our current energy consumption by 2050.
Behavioural changes (3 GtC/y)
The following behavioural changes are
readily enforceable : reduction of road and air traffic, increasing role for
public transport and railroads, relocation of economic processes, longer
lifetime for equipments through better maintenance and repair, a less
oil-dependent agriculture, switching from cement constructions to other
materials where possible, etc. These changes are to be encouraged by higher
energy prices, fiscal reforms, national alllocation plans and change in subsidy
policies (see chapter 3 below).
2.2 Technical solutions
Electricity from solar energy (1
GtC/y)
Recent developments in electricity generated
by solar power are promising for cost efficiency. Using a simple technology
with parabolic mirrors, water can be heated to produce steam and hence,
electricity. The advantage if this development is that it relies much less on
strategic materials like silica. In order
to avoid 1 GtC/y by 2050, the present solar generating capacity for electricity
should be increased by a factor 100.
Electricity from wind turbines (1
GtC/y)
Wind turbines can produce energy directly
or through hydrogen. In order to generate the equivalent of energy produced by
coal fired power plants emitting 1 GtC/y, the current global capacity of wind
turbines should be multiplied by 50. Given the present 30% growth of this
sector, wind turbines represent an important potential for the coming years.
Biofuels and methane (1 GtC/y)
Biomass (agricultural waste) and methane
(household waste, sewage, cattle) management has a strong potential for
generating energy and replacing imported oil and diesel. So as to avoid the
equivalent of 1 GtC/y by 2050, 2 billion cars should be fuelled by biofuels and
their
efficiency doubled.
Carbon sinks (1 GtC/y)
In order to absorb the equivalent of 1
GtC/y, 400 million acres of tempered climate forests or 300 million of tropical
climate forests should be rehabilitated and maintained.
Agriculture (1 GtC/y)
CO2 and methane emissions from agriculture
and cattle represent a fourth of global emissions. So as to avoid the
equivalent of 1 GtC/y from these activities, appropriate tillage and rice
fields drainage techniques should be adopted by all cultivated fields.
Geothermy
(2 GtC/y by 2050)
Underground heat provided by the Earth's magma can be used to generate electricity or to heat buildings in winter. This widespread availability and zero-emission energy source is currently overlooked, except for Iceland, Northern America and for pilot projects elswewhere.
2.3 Unsustainable or
poorly known wedges
Using all the 7 wedges listed above, the 3
GtC/y limit is respected, a yearly amount that oceans and forests have the
capacity to absorb. In fact the above techniques reaches a 2 GtC/y target,
lower than the amount of carbon that the earth can absorb. This can help the
climate to slowly recover.
The wedges listed below can also be
applied, but they are of lesser environmental quality, are not competitive or
are not sustainable.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen (H2) can be separated from
natural gas or water molecules using renewable energy or fossil energy. H2 can
replace heating oil as well as oil for transportation, with no greenhouse gas
emissions (apart from emissions during the separation of H2 from CO2). To avoid
a 1GtC/y by 2050, the annual H2 production, separated by natural gas should be
multiplied by 6.
Carbon Capture and
Storage, CCS
This
technique consists in literally capturing (liquefying) 90 to 95% of CO2 emitted
by coal fuels power plants, then to transport the emissions by pipeline towards
deep underground repositories, natural cavities or old gas wells. The EU, USA
and China have all started pilot projects for CCS power plants. The current aim
is to develop commercially viable full cycle CCS power plants between 2015 and
2020. If proven successful, the full cycle should be close to a zero emissions
solution. To avoid the equivalent of 1 GtC/y with CCS, the equivalent of 3'500
more under-sea bed CO2 pumping stations equivalent to the 10 year old Norwegian
« Sleipner » platform should be built. The problem with CCS, even if
it becomes technically viable, is its’ economic viability. In other words, its’
dependence on depleting sources of fossil fuels, with great uncertainty
regarding near term and medium term fossil fuel prices.
Fuel switching
To produce a same amount of energy, a coal fired
powerplant emits twice as much greenhouse gases than a natural gas fired plant.
In order to reduce global emissions of 1 GtC/y by 2050, 1'000 coal fired
powerplants should be switched to gas, and where appropriate fitted to produce
a combination of electricity as well as heating neighbouring buildings
(cogeneration).
The negative point of this fuel switch, as for CCS, is
that it relies on a non-renewable energy with very unreliable cost projections
for the near future.
Nuclear
If the energy production of nuclear power plants were
doubled by 2050, and if this was responsible for avoided coal power plants, 1
GtC/y could be avoided. However no progress has been made regarding long-term
radioactive waste management, also the potential for a major nuclear
catastrophe in a nuclear power plant has still not be reduced to zero, finally,
uranium reserves will be depleted in the coming decades.
3. Implementing the wedges
The efficiency gains and behavioural
changes listed in section 2.1 can be induced by the implementation of the
following market based policy instruments :
Green tax reform
Market based instruments such as tax
reform (CO2 or GHG taxes compensated by subsequent tax relieves in other
activities) have a strong record of inducing behavioural and consumption
changes. Germany has implemented such a tax swap from 1999 to 2004 with a
proven effect of emissions reductions during that period.
Emissions trading system
ETS
In Europe, the Emission trading system
with a cap and trade mechanism should result in continuously reducing
greenhouse gas emissions in coming years. However the efficiency of the ETS
depends largely on how well the governments manage the allocation of emissions
granted to industry. For the time being, these self-imposed targets are clearly
too lenient to hold any prospect for increased energy efficiency.
Clean Development
Mechanisms, CDM
Corporations in the North have recently
invested in delocalising their carbon emissions offsetting. A third of the CO2
emissions reductions (as targeted by Kyoto for 2012) are attributed to CDMs in
non-OECD countries, mainly India and China. The Kyoto protocol mentioned this
North-South offsetting mechanism as one of three « flexibility
instruments » available for developed countries (the others being the
Emissions Trading System and the Joint Implementation of clean energy
projects). CDMs for example have boosted investments towards cleaner energy
switches and towards renewable energy sources.
The other wedges are also implemented to
some extent by market based instruments. By making CO2 emissions
more expensive, they render renewable energies relatively more attractive.
Targeted policies such as RD&D subsidies, cost-covering network feed-in
prices and regulation can further promote specific wedges.
Noe21 is the
acronym of New Economic Orientation for the 21st century
Geneva based
NGO dedicated to research and communication on solutions to the climate crisis
Tel. +41 22 329 51 36
19 quai Charles Page
1205 Genève Switzerland